Optimism in Nashville - Does “Winning the Off-Season” Matter?
During the NHL off-season, roster changes are made to just about every team each year. Free agents are signed by new teams, some players retire, trades take place throughout the summer, etc. By the end of the off-season, fans will typically declare a “winner” and a “loser” for the off-season, simply based on which teams improved the most or took the biggest step back. This article will examine each off-season since the 2009 off-season to see the relationship between “winning the off-season” and performance the following year.
Some subjectivity will be involved in declaring winners, as “winning the off-season” can differ based on opinions. However, winners were picked based on what was perceived as the largest net roster improvement at the time. Additionally, only the short-term was taken into account. For example, acquiring a player for draft picks is automatically an improvement in this context, whereas in the long-term it may not always be the case. Knowledge about a player in hindsight was not taken into account, only how valuable players were perceived at the time of each respective off-season. Finally, rookies who were likely to join an NHL roster were not taken into account when deciding which team won the off-season.
2009 Off-Season Winner - Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs won the 2009 off-season mostly due to the acquisition of Phil Kessel, while the main asset given up was a first-round draft pick. Unfortunately, the 09-10 season did not go as planned, and the Leafs saw a regression in performance, resulting in the loss of their second overall pick, and eventual top prospect Tyler Seguin. The Maple Leafs would have Phil Kessel for six seasons, making the playoffs once in that span.
2010 Off-Season Winner - Atlanta Thrashers
The Atlanta Thrashers made significant changes in the 2010 off-season, most notably receiving Dustin Byfuglien, who played a key role in the Blackhawks’ Stanley Cup in 2010. Andrew Ladd was considered to be a player of medium significance at the time, but he would later become the captain of the Winnipeg Jets. The Thrashers didn’t see a large change in points the following season, however, after the franchise relocated at the end of the 2010-2011 season, Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd would become significant pieces to the Winnipeg Jets’ roster for many years.
2011 Off-Season Winner - Florida Panthers
Although the Panthers didn’t acquire any “high” significant players, the sheer quantity of “medium” significant players that joined the Panthers in the 2011 off-season was enough to award them as the winners. While Tomas Vokoun was a significant loss, the net result was a vast roster improvement for the Panthers. This translated to their play as well, as the Panthers would go on to win their division and qualify for their first playoff appearance since 2000.
Unfortunately, the Panthers would lose in a close seven-game series against the Devils, and would quickly fall back, once again becoming one of the worst teams in the league over the next couple of years.
2012 Off-Season Winner - Minnesota Wild
In the 2012 off-season, the Minnesota Wild lost zero players of any significance, while gaining two players that would become cornerstone pieces of the team for years to come, Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. After missing the playoffs for four straight seasons, the Wild returned to the playoffs in 2013, and would continue to make the playoffs every year until 2018-2019.
2013 Off-Season Winner - Dallas Stars
The 2013 off-season was won by the Dallas Stars, in large part due to their acquisition of Tyler Seguin, who was at this point a 60-70 point player with high potential. The Stars had missed the playoffs for five consecutive seasons, but made the playoffs again in their first season with Seguin. Although the Stars would become a rather inconsistent team from one year to the next, one thing that remained consistent was Tyler Seguin’s status as one of the top players in the league.
2014 Off-Season Winner - Florida Panthers
The 2014 off-season was relatively quiet, as the winner, the Florida Panthers, didn’t necessarily see too many roster changes. However, both Jussi Jokinen and Brian Campbell would become significant pieces to the team over the next couple of seasons, and as a result, the Panthers saw a massive 25 point climb in the 2014-2015 season, followed by a division win in the 2015-2016 season.
2015 Off-Season Winner - Pittsburgh Penguins
For the first time since looking back to 2009, not only was the off-season winner a previous playoff team, but the off-season winner would go on to win the Stanley Cup in the following season. For the second time, Phil Kessel was the culprit for a team winning the off-season, only this time, the team acquiring Kessel would have a far better outcome. The Pittsburgh Penguins would not only win the 2016 Stanley Cup, but also the 2017 Stanley Cup, and would continue to be a great team for years after. Phil Kessel played a major role in both of their Stanley Cups, and was only a few votes shy of winning the 2016 Conn Smythe trophy as the MVP of the playoffs.
2016 Off-Season Winner - New Jersey Devils
The New Jersey Devils had the best off-season in 2016 in large part due to the one-for-one trade that sent Adam Larsson to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for Taylor Hall. This trade left nearly everyone in the hockey world confused, and the confusion of this trade has never ended, as Taylor Hall would win the Hart trophy as the leagues MVP just two seasons later, helping New Jersey qualify for their first playoffs since 2012. Unfortunately, the Devils did not see much success outside of the 2017-2018 season, and would accumulate multiple first overall picks despite winning the 2016 off-season.
2017 Off-Season Winner - Dallas Stars
By the 2017 off-season, the most noticeable struggle of the Dallas Stars had been goaltending, as even when they placed second in the league during the 2015-2016 season, they had placed 19th in goals against. The Stars addressed this by acquiring one of the best goaltenders in the league, Ben Bishop. Additionally, they were able to land top line winger Alexander Radulov, as well as more solid pieces to improve their roster. Although the Stars would miss the playoffs the following season, they still saw a noticeable improvement in points, and would return to the playoffs in 2018-2019. Thanks to other roster changes and coaching changes, the Stars suddenly became one of the stingiest defensive teams in the league. They would even make it to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2020, although Ben Bishop was not a key piece of the team at that point due to injury.
2018 Off-Season Winner - St. Louis Blues
The St. Louis Blues added significant pieces to their forward group in the 2018 off-season, most notably Ryan O’Rielly and David Perron. In the 2018-2019 season, the Blues would become infamous for their dead-last standings position in January, to eventually winning the Stanley Cup. The most significant player in this turn around was rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington, however, Ryan O’Reilly would become the eventual Conn Smythe winner as the MVP of the playoffs. Both O’Rielly and Perron would continue to be some of the most important players on the team over the next few years, however, in the present day, none of the four acquisitions in the 2018 off-season remain on the Blues’ roster.
2019 Off-Season Winner - Florida Panthers
For the third time since 2009, the Florida Panthers had won an off-season. The previous two occurrences led to short-term improvements, whereas their third off-season win would carry an important piece to their eventual Stanley Cup win in 2024. Sergei Bobrovsky was one of the best goaltenders in the league in 2019, and was a fantastic piece for their future compared to previous goaltender James Reimer, as well as Roberto Luongo who retired during the 2019 off-season. Although the Panthers didn’t see much change the following season, as their standings rank only increased slightly, and they still had one of the worst goals against in the league, the Panthers would become one of the best teams in the league during the 2021 season. Ironically, Sergei Bobrovsky was not necessarily a huge part of their success, and many questioned if his large contract was worth it until he proved his value in both 2023 and 2024 playoff runs.
2020 Off-Season Winner - Buffalo Sabres
On paper, the 2020 Buffalo Sabres had a fantastic off-season, acquiring recent Hart winner Taylor Hall, as well as recent 42 goal scorer Eric Staal. However, not only did the Sabres not improve, but the 2021 Buffalo Sabres would become the only team on this list of off-season winners to finish dead-last the following season. This was in part due to injuries, as well as the competition playing in what was widely considered to be the best division during the 2021 shortened season. Today, none of their 2020 off-season acquisitions are still on the roster, and unfortunately, the Sabres have still not found success, as their most recent playoff appearance remains as 2011.
2021 Off-Season Winner - Carolina Hurricanes
The 2021 off-season winner is up for debate, as some had actually argued that the 2021 off-season was not a success for the Hurricanes. However, despite the loss of Dougie Hamilton, the acquisition of Frederik Andersen as well as other depth pieces made the Hurricanes improve on paper in the short-term. Of all teams examined in this article, the 2021-2022 Hurricanes saw the most consistent results from one season to the next. The Hurricanes changed by only one point, saw the same overall standings rank, and had the same result in the playoffs. The Hurricanes would continue to be one of the best teams in the league for every season up to the current day, however, they have not managed to get past eight wins in one playoff run.
2022 Off-Season Winner - Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators added significant pieces to their roster in the 2022 off-season, landing Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux, and Cam Talbot. Despite a noticeable improvement in points, the Senators were unable to qualify for the post-season. Only one season later, Claude Giroux is the only player remaining from their 2022 acquisitions on the Senators’ roster, and the Senators continue to search for sustained success.
2023 Off-Season Winner - Detroit Red Wings
Only one season later, Alex DeBrincat was once again responsible for another off-season winner, this time by the Detroit Red Wings. In addition to DeBrincat, the Red Wings also picked up a slew of “medium” significant players, and saw a vast improvement in the 2023-2024 season. It took until the last game of the regular season for the Red Wings to be eliminated from playoff qualification, and the expectations for the Red Wings continue to increase each season.
2024 Off-Season Winner - Nashville Predators
The Nashville Predators are widely considered to be the winners of the current 2024 off-season, as they are the only team analyzed in this article to acquire three “high” significant players in one off-season. Although this article has shown that most teams that win the off-season don’t see any significant success the following season, the Predators are just the third team to win the off-season while qualifying for the playoffs in the previous season. The 2015 Penguins won two Stanley Cups following their successful off-season, and the 2021 Hurricanes saw sustained success for the following years. This doesn’t guarantee that the Predators will improve, as their core is relatively old, and both the Penguins and Hurricanes already had other prominent pieces prior to their respect off-seasons. However, this is nonetheless an optimistic sign that the Predators, an already strong team, could become even stronger in the 2024-2025 season.
Conclusion
Average points improvement: 3.8
Average rank improvement: 3.6
Teams that won the Stanley Cup the following season: 2
Teams that won at least one Stanley Cup within five years after: 3
Total number of Stanley Cup Finals appearances within five years after: 6
Teams that qualified for the playoffs the following season after previously missing them: 4 (5 if 2019-2020 Panthers are included)
As seen, “winning the off-season” is generally a good indication that a team will have success in the following season, or in the next few years to come. Although it seems obvious that teams who get better on paper will likely see improvements, there have been many instances where new highly touted acquisitions don’t fit in with a new team, and as a result the team actually declines. However, it appears that this is not the case when one team seems to improve in multiple areas and has the best net roster improvement among all teams in a single off-season.
Teams that won the off-season saw point improvements in 10 out of 15 following regular seasons. Additionally, six out of 13 teams (not including recent teams such as the Senators and Red Wings) saw consistent post-season appearances, or even Stanley Cup wins in the long-term. Only four of these 13 teams saw little to no success in the long-term after having a winning off-season.
Although this experiment is more of a “fun” analysis that involves some subjectivity, it still points towards the fact that the Nashville Predators will likely improve in the 2024-2025 regular season. Additionally, the Nashville Predators may even be considered as a dark horse pick for a Stanley Cup winner in the near future, as off-season winning teams that have already qualified for the playoffs generally see more heightened success than those who did not qualify for recent post-seasons.