Would Changing the NHL Points System Make a Difference in the Standings?

Since the 2005-2006 season when the salary cap era began, the points system changed to what it is today, where a team is rewarded two points for a win of any kind, one point for a loss in overtime or the shootout, and zero points for a regulation loss. This changed from the previous season where ties also existed, with both teams each receiving one point for a tie. As the salary cap era progressed, the discussion of the points system came back into play when shootout wins were seen as inferior to regulation wins. Instead of changing the point structure, a new tie-breaker was created where two teams tied in points would have the first tie-breaker be dependent on which team had more regulation and overtime wins. The system continued to evolve, and in this current day, we now have multiple tie-breaking procedures segmented based on regulation wins followed by regulation and overtime wins. Despite the changes in tie-breaker procedures, one thing that has remained consistent is the fact that a win of any form is still two points. This brings up the question of if the NHL standings would be significantly impacted if it instead adopted an IIHF (International Ice Hockey Federation) system, which awards regulation wins as three points, overtime or shootout wins as two points, an overtime or shootout loss as one point, and a regulation loss as zero points. For simplicity purposes, this article will just analyze instances of teams that would have made the playoffs under an IIHF points system, despite missing the playoffs under the current system. Factors such as seeding changes that would change matchups or draft pick orders will not be analyzed.

Discounting both the 2019-2020 and 2021 NHL seasons due to the unusual circumstances, there have been 17 regular seasons of NHL hockey since the 2005-2006 season when the current point system began. When accounting for expansion teams in this time, there have been a total of 518 records of teams’ regular seasons; 272 playoff teams and 246 non-playoff teams. Of these teams, under the IIHF points system, nine teams that missed the playoffs would have swapped with another nine teams that made the playoffs under the regular points system. The remaining 500 teams would not have had their playoff qualifications impacted. In other words, approximately 96.5% of teams are not involved in these swaps and would remain unaffected from their qualifying position for the post-season. This averages out to approximately only one team every two years that would overtake a different team and qualify for the playoffs if the systems were changed. While this is low and suggests the current points system is sound and does not need any overhauls, there are some significant instances of how this could have drastically changed the playoffs.

2006 - Vancouver Canucks overtake the Edmonton Oilers

The eighth seeded Edmonton Oilers finished three points ahead of the ninth seeded Vancouver Canucks under the regular system, however, under the IIHF points system, the Canucks would have three more points than the Oilers, and the two teams would have swapped positions. This would have prevented one of the best runs by an eighth seed or second wild card in sports history, as the Oilers were just one win away from the 2006 Stanley Cup.

2008 - Carolina Hurricanes overtake the Boston Bruins

The 2006 Carolina Hurricanes get unfairly labeled as one of the less dominant Stanley Cup winning teams, in large part due to their inability to see sustained success. After their 2006 cup win, they failed to qualify for the playoffs the following two seasons. In the 2007-2008 season, the Hurricanes looked like they were heading back to the playoffs, holding a strong position as the third seed in a weak Southeast division. However, their divisional rival Washington Capitals would go on an 11-1-0 run to end the season, which included two wins against the Hurricanes, edging them out by two points in the standings. Under the IIHF points system, the 2008 Hurricanes would have claimed the third seed as the Southeast division winner, while Washington would have been moved to the eighth seed, and the Bruins would have been out of the playoffs. The reputation that the 2006 Hurricanes receive to this day may have been different had they qualified for the 2008 playoffs.

2010 - New York Rangers Overtake the Montreal Canadiens

The 2009-2010 New York Rangers season infamously came to an end in the last game of the shootout, being edged out by the Flyers who won that game and then claimed the final playoff spot available. However, under the IIHF points system, both teams would qualify for the 2010 playoffs, while the Montreal Canadiens would have been pushed out. The 2010 Canadiens went on a long run, most remembered for eliminating both Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby from the playoffs, mostly due to the heroics of Jaroslav Halak. This notable playoff run would not have existed under the alternative points system.

2016 - Boston Bruins Overtake the Detroit Red Wings

The 2015-2016 Boston Bruins were only three years removed from being a cup finalist, and two years removed from being the Presidents’ Trophy winners as the best regular season team. The 2015-2016 Bruins were expected to be a playoff team despite missing the 2015 playoffs by two points. Although they were in a good position late in the season, the Bruins finished March with a 1-6-0 record. In the second-last game of the season, the Bruins played the Red Wings, both aiming for the final playoff spot, which would have been the third seed in the Atlantic division. The Bruins won this game, resulting in both teams being tied with 93 points in the standings. However, the Red Wings had the tie-breaker, allowing them to hold on and qualify for the playoffs, despite the fact that both teams lost game 82 of the season. Under the IIHF points system, the Bruins would have made the playoffs despite the slide in March, finishing three points ahead of the Red Wings. This would have ended the Red Wings’ historically long playoff streak one year sooner, and the 2016 Bruins, a team much better than what their record would indicate, would have had the chance to make some noise in the playoffs.

Summary

Of the nine teams who qualified for the playoffs that would have been eliminated under an IIHF points system, one team went to the Stanley Cup Finals, one team lost in the third round, one team lost in the second round, and the remaining six teams all lost in the first round. This lack of success can easily be explained by the fact that lower seeded playoff teams are usually eliminated earlier and rarely go on long playoff runs. As a result, it is safe to say that new teams that would have qualified under a different points system would not have made a significant impact on the eventual Stanley Cup Champion.

Interestingly, there was at least one instance of teams swapping in the first five seasons of the salary cap era. However, likely by coincidence, there have only been three instances since the 2010-2011 season. Also by coincidence, the Eastern Conference was involved in seven of the nine instances.

List of teams who's playoff qualifications were impacted under the IIHF points system

Conclusion

Overall, any narrative that the current NHL points system is flawed does not hold much weight when there have only been nine instances of teams swapping playoff positions with another team, or approximately one instance every two years. Of these instances, only one team went to the Stanley Cup Finals, further decreasing the impact of an “underserving” team being in the playoffs over a team with more regulations wins or wins in general. Fixing the tie breaking procedure to decrease the value of shootout and later overtime wins seems to have been an intelligent decision that has regulated the standings in a fair manner. As a result, it is unlikely that changing the points system would bring any notable value to the standings.