Characteristics of a Stanley Cup Final Game Seven

After the Oilers have come all the way back from down 3-0 to tying the series, the NHL will see the 18th game seven in Stanley Cup Finals history. Unlike game sevens in any of the other three rounds, history shows that the characteristics of Stanley Cup Final game sevens are unique from any other game of the season. There are a few characteristics to consider heading into game seven on June 24th, 2024.

Importance of Scoring First

Of the 17 game seven Stanley Cup winners, 12 of them scored the first goal. However, scoring first has been an even stronger factor in recent years, as the last eight Stanley Cup Final game sevens saw the team scoring first winning the Stanley Cup. In fact, in all eight of these games, the team that scored first also scored the next goal to go up 2-0, with the losing team never tying the game. As a result, the last lead change in a SCF game seven was in 1987, when the Flyers scored first followed by three Oilers goals. Why is it so rare to see a lead change, and why do teams that go up 1-0 often score the next goal? The most probable reason is the team that scores first instills panic into the opponent knowing what is on the line, causing them to make riskier plays that can then turn into mistakes that the leading team can further capitalize on.

From a betting perspective, this implies that the team scoring first is more likely to score the next goal, as well as winning the game and the Stanley Cup.

Low Scoring

On average, there are a total of four combined goals scored in a Stanley Cup Final game seven. The most goals ever scored was seven, which occurred in 1950 when the Red Wings beat the Rangers 4-3 in overtime. The next highest is five goals, which occurred three times. On the other hand, three combined goals is tied for the lowest, meaning the score has never been 1-0 or 2-0. The most common score has been 3-1, occurring five times, most recently in 2006, while 2-1 is the second most common score occurring four times, and most recently in 2009.

From a betting perspective, the total combined score in the game is unlikely to exceed five goals, as it has only occurred once in 17 game sevens.

Lack of Overtime

While there have been plenty of game seven overtimes in general throughout the years, rarely does it happen in the Stanley Cup Finals. In fact, 1954 was the last time it occurred, and 1950 was the only other occurrence, and the Red Wings won both of these games. For 13 Stanley Cup Final game sevens in a row, the game has ended in regulation. This goes hand-in-hand with the importance of scoring first trend, as the lack of lead changes automatically implies that overtime would not occur.

From a betting perspective, it is unlikely that the game will go into overtime.

Advantage for Home Team Historically, Road Team Recently

Of the 17 game sevens, the home team has won 12 times, and from 1950 to 2006, 11 out of 12 game sevens went to the home team. However, the most recent three game sevens have all gone to the road team, those being the 2009 Penguins, the 2011 Bruins, and the 2019 Blues. While this shift in the trend could just be a coincidence, home teams may be under more pressure playing a winner-take-all game in front of their home crowd.

From a betting perspective, it may be risky to use this information to decide a winner, as three occurrences in a row is not a large enough sample size to confidently give the edge to the road team, in this case the Edmonton Oilers. Nonetheless, it is interesting to see the shift from home dominance to road dominance, as the road team has outscored the home team 10-2 in these three games.

Significance of Previous Games

In order for there to be a game seven, one team must have been down 3-2 facing elimination, needing to win with everything on the line. While an initial assumption could be that the team that wins this game six has more success in the game seven due to momentum, confidence, and perhaps putting doubt in the mind of the team that was up 3-2, there actually isn’t a relationship. Eight out of the 17 teams that win the game six go on to win the Stanley Cup in game seven, meaning less than half of the game six winners win the cup. More interestingly, only five out of 17 teams that win game five go on to win the Stanley Cup in game seven. Game four is the most important game other than game seven itself, having 11 out of 17 eventual game seven winners, and five of the most recent game seven cup winners winning game four.

From a betting perspective, there is not a strong enough relationship for predicting a game seven winner based on a team winning in any of the previous six games.

Summary

Given historic information, the following information can be used to predict various outcomes of the game seven between the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers:

• Whoever scores first will likely win

• It is unlikely that there will be a lead change in the game

• It is unlikely that the combined score will exceed five goals

• The game will likely end in regulation

• Based on historic trends, the home team will likely win. But based on the previous three game sevens, the road team will likely win.

History of Stanley Cup Final Game Sevens

This upcoming game seven will be arguably the most significant game in NHL history. You have Connor McDavid, a generational talent and one of the best players of all time looking for his first Stanley Cup despite many years of doubt that the Oilers were not built for a Stanley Cup. Additionally, McDavid is a likely candidate to win the Conn Smythe trophy even if the Oilers end up losing, something that has only occurred five times previously. You have the Florida Panthers trying to get their first Stanley Cup, also after losing in the finals the previous year. You have Paul Maurice, one of the longest tenured coaches of all time, looking for his first Stanley Cup. You have the potential for the first 3-0 finals comeback since World War II. You have a team looking to win the cup despite starting the season 2-9-1 and 5-12-1. You have a Canadian team trying to win the Stanley Cup for the first time in over 30 years. Finally, the NHL has never been as popular as it is today. As a result, this game should theoretically have more eyes on it than any other game in NHL history, perhaps only limited by the market size of the Panthers. With all the surrounding storylines, this game is set to be a once in a lifetime experience.

Obviously, one team is going to win the cup, which will guarantee that one of the trends previously analyzed will be broken. Will it be the Oilers and their record low first quarter among cup winners, or will it be the Panthers and the 56 win trend? Find out more by clicking below.

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