The Uncertainty of Predicting Playoff Teams Before the Season Begins

Data analysis can be used to make predictions on future events in sports. However, one of the most difficult outcomes to predict, even with all of the modern analytical tools, is accurately predicting which 16 teams will qualify for the post-season. Even if not all 16, it is difficult to achieve a success rate of correctly predicting 75% of teams that qualify for the playoffs. This is also unlikely to beat the spread, as the top teams that are expected to make the playoffs will not provide a noteworthy payout. An average of five new teams have qualified for the playoffs each year since the 2005-2006 season, marking the beginning of the salary cap era, and often these new teams were difficult to predict. The strategy with sports betting is to capitalize on the unpredictable opportunities, in this case being breakout teams or fringe teams that most fans are not confident will make the playoffs. However, there are a few reasons why this is difficult to predict, even with the most intelligent use of data analysis.

Injuries

The most egregiously impactful variable that is also nearly impossible to predict is injuries. Aside from individual players who have a history of injuries, or have a known nagging injury, predicting an entire team to have a season disrupted by numerous injuries is next to impossible to anticipate. The most recent team to be impacted by this was the 2023-2024 New Jersey Devils. Although they faced goaltending issues, the loss of their best player, Jack Hughes, for 20 games, and their best defenceman, Dougie Hamilton, for the majority of the season was a significant cause for their unexpected playoff miss. The Devils went from 112 points for third best in the 2022-2023 season, down to 81, tied for 23rd.

The 2021-2022 Vegas Golden Knights are another example of a team bombarded by injuries. Despite a strong start going 22-12-0 entering January, the Knights had injuries to key players such as Mark Stone, Rielly Smith, Max Pacioretty, Alec Martinez, and more, including acquiring an injured Jack Eichel in a trade. As a result, the Knights would fall from their hot start and miss the playoffs in 2022 despite having a cup contending roster, proven by their second place finish in the 2021 shortened season, and their Stanley Cup win in the 2022-2023 season.

As a result, injuries can impact any team, whether it’s a cup contender or a fringe playoff team, and therefore can have an effect on what was originally seen as a logical prediction before the beginning of the season.

Sudden Climb from Key Players

Every year, there are many players that have “break-out” seasons, where they are noticeably improved from the previous season, with some players more noticeable than others. On the contrary, some players have a sudden “drop-off” usually due to age or an ongoing injury, however, these are easier to anticipate.

The 2003-2004 Buffalo Sabres are one of the most noticeable examples of a team that unexpectedly improved the following season (2005-2006 due to the lockout in 2004-2005). Some of their key forwards aged 27 or under included Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, Maxim Afinogenov, Derek Roy, and Tim Connolly. Aside from Briere, the average point improvement of the four young forwards from their previous season was 28 points, with Afinogenov’s 42 point improvement being the most noticeable. Briere declined by seven points, however, he only played in 48 games in the 05-06 season compared to the full 82 games in the prior season, meaning his points per game increased drastically. As a result of these numerous breakout seasons, the Sabres unexpectedly took the league by storm, improving by 38 points in the standings.

A recent example are the 2022-2023 New Jersey Devils. After having missed the playoffs for four seasons in a row and placing 28th in the standings in 2021-2022 with 63 points, the 2022-2023 New Jersey Devils shocked the hockey world with a 49 point improvement, and placing third in the league. Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer, and Dougie Hamilton all had noticeable point improvements and helped propel the Devils to an unexpected playoff spot.

                         New Jersey Devils player improvements

Chemistry Among Players and Staff

Sometimes, despite having a sound roster on paper, the team is simply not “clicking”. This is sometimes seen among new players joining a team and not fitting in well, or a coach, new or reoccurring, unable to achieve consistency out of the team. Additionally, a team can have what seems to be the right pieces for a successful powerplay or penalty kill, but if the special teams coaches don’t fit in well with the players, the special teams numbers may not be as expected. For example, in the 2017-2018 season, the Ottawa Senators were the second worst team in the league despite the fact that they were one goal away from the 2017 Stanley Cup Finals. Even after acquiring Matt Duchene early in the 2017-2018 season, while already having the talent of Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, and Erik Karlsson on the powerplay, the Senators had an underwhelming powerplay percentage of 16.6%, ranked 27th in the league. They were also ranked 27th on the penalty kill. Early in the following 2018-2019 season, a group of Senators players were infamously caught talking critically about the special teams coaches while they were riding in an Uber, highlighting the fact that the staff involved behind the scenes can impact the play on the ice, even with talent on the roster. Because fans have limited access to information about the coaching staff and how effective they are with the team, it can create outcomes in the season that are unpredictable.

On the contrary, some teams seemingly don’t look impressive on paper but surprise fans with systems or line combinations that work well. A perfect example of this were the 2017-2018 Vegas Golden Knights, in their first year upon expanding their roster did not look overly impressive. However, the Golden Knights thrived and the team seemed to have near perfect chemistry, as they finished fifth in the league and made it to the 2018 Stanley Cup Finals.

Conclusion

Overall, betting on who will qualify for the post-season is a high risk, low reward category. Teams that are expected to qualify for the playoffs will have a low payout, and are even subject to unexpected risk, such as the 2006-2007 Hurricanes, 2014-2015 Bruins, 2021-2022 Vegas Golden Knights, and 2023-2024 New Jersey Devils, as these are some examples of recent teams who missed the playoffs despite being expected to qualify. On the contrary, betting on more unexpected, and perhaps unproven teams to qualify for the playoffs has a higher reward, but is much more difficult to predict. As a result, most fans would be better off using their betting allowance elsewhere on sports betting categories backed by predictability using trends and data analysis tools.