Winnipeg Jets: Easy Schedule or the Real Deal?

The 2024-2025 Winnipeg Jets have set a new NHL record for becoming the first and only team to win 14 of their first 15 games of a regular season. While the Jets had a strong season last year, no one could have predicted just how dominant they have been to start this season. However, some critics have pointed out this strong start could partially be due to their lenient schedule. After all, 10 of their first 15 games have been against teams that missed the playoffs last season. This begs the question; how have other teams that started with lenient schedules performed in their first 15 games and throughout the season?

This article will look at how teams performed with a minimum of 10 of their first 15 games against non-playoff teams from the prior year. The analysis will be kept within the salary cap era beginning in 2005 in order to have a large enough sample, while also restricting the analysis to the modern era. To keep the analysis simple, all years that followed either a lockout shortened season or a Covid impacted season will not be considered. The seasons omitted from the analysis will be 2005-2006, 2013, 2013-2014, 2019-2020, 2021, and 2021-2022. These seasons are excluded since shortened seasons impact the dynamics of which teams qualify for the playoffs, which in turn impacts the current and following season for this analysis.

With the guidelines defined, there were 38 teams that had a schedule that consisted of 10 non-playoff teams in their first 15 games among the seasons analyzed. Most of these teams faced exactly 10 non-playoff teams, although the 2010-2011 San Jose Sharks in particular had the easiest schedule, playing 13 non-playoff teams in their first 15 games. Of the 38 teams, 22 teams, or 57.9% of teams, won more than half of their first 15 games. The most successful record after the 24-25 Jets were the 23-24 Bruins, with a record of 12-1-2, and the 06-07 Ducks with a record of 11-0-4, for a points percentage of 0.867 by both teams. Other teams that won 11 games or more include the 22-23 Devils with 12, and the 15-16 Rangers and 14-15 Lightning with 11. The 06-07 Ducks are the only team of the 38 to have zero regulation losses in their first 15 games.

Number of teams to win each amount of games in their first 15 games

The most unsuccessful team of these 38 were the 17-18 Arizona Coyotes. Despite playing 11 non-playoff teams, they had a record of 2-12-1 after 15 games, for a points percentage of 0.167. The next lowest win total is at five, tied between the 16-17 Sabres, the 15-16 Avalanche, and the 14-15 Hurricanes.

The average number of wins among these teams is eight, which would be above the league average of 7.5 wins if every team in the league had played 15 games. The average points percentage of teams is 0.589, which is considered to be a good points percentage that would typically qualify for the playoffs, as this would equate to approximately 96 points in a full season. Only seven teams, equating to 18.4% of teams, had a points percentage under 0.500. Interestingly, only seven teams also finished the season with a points percentage under 0.500, some being different teams than the teams under 0.500 after the first 15 games.

Perhaps one of the largest points that goes against discrediting a teams record for an easy schedule is the lack of points percentage drops when comparing the end of the year record versus the record after 15 games. Despite the lenient schedule against non-playoff teams from the prior season, only 19, or 51.4% of teams, had a final record with a worse points percentage than their record at 15 games. The 17-18 Senators were the biggest dropper, as their 7-3-5 record turned into a 28-43-11 record, with a drop of 0.225 points percentage. The 17-18 Coyotes were the biggest improver, improving by 0.260 after going from 2-12-1 to 29-41-12. The 17-18 Ducks are one of the few examples of a team with a mediocre start that became a playoff team, as their 6-6-3 record became a 44-25-13 record by the end of the season. The average points percentage by the end of the season is 0.573, which is only a slight total drop from the first 15 games, and equates to an average of approximately 94 points in a full season.

Finally, the most important question is analyzing how these teams did by the end of the season and in the playoffs. Of the 37 teams with finished seasons, in other words, excluding the 24-25 Winnipeg Jets, 22 teams qualified for the playoffs, equating to 59.5% of teams. The 08-09 Wild are the only team to win at least 10 of their first 15 games to miss the playoffs, resulting in 88.9% of teams winning at least 10 games to qualify. Of the 22 playoff teams, exactly half of them were eliminated in the first round. Of the remaining 11, only two were eliminated in the second round. Four teams lost in the Conference Finals, with an impressive five teams making it to the Stanley Cup Finals. The 22-23 Panthers, 18-19 Bruins, and 14-15 Lightning lost in the finals, whereas the 09-10 Blackhawks and 06-07 Ducks were the two teams of these 37 to win the Stanley Cup.

Results of the 37 teams with at least 10 of their first 15 games against non-playoff teams

After looking at the various metrics, there is no sufficient evidence to suggest that having a lenient schedule to begin a season delegitimizes a teams record. In fact, these 37 teams have performed well above what would be expected of a random sample of teams. For example, 5.4% of these 37 teams being cup winners, 13.5% being finalists, and 24.3% making it to the Conference Finals is well above the percentage of any large, random sample of teams from various seasons. The explanation for this performance could very well be that having a softer schedule to begin with, and therefore getting more wins increases confidence, which allows teams to continuously perform well throughout the season and into the playoffs. Another explanation could be that having a strong start due to an easier schedule allows teams to build a cushion, where they can rest towards the playoffs more than other teams scrambling to qualify for the playoffs. In other words, the mentality and emotions players have with a winning record is much different than if they have a losing record, which in turn will continuously have an impact on their play. While one could make the argument that this easier schedule has helped the Jets, the argument that they still have a lot to prove does not hold much merit. This is especially true given that they have not only won 14 of their first 15 games, but they have done so in dominating fashion, leading the league in both goals for per game and goals against per game, as well as power play percentage. Their +36 differential means that on average they win by more than two goals per game, which is an impressive stat no matter which teams you play. As a result, the Winnipeg Jets are more than likely the real deal, and should finish as one of the top teams by the end of the season.