Will Lack of Playoff Experience Impact the Vancouver Canucks?
Although the 2023-2024 Vancouver Canucks defied all expectations, achieving 50 wins and claiming first place in the Pacific Division, many question their playoff potential due to a lack of experience among the main core, and the team in general. It has been four seasons since the Canucks have been in the post-season, the last time being the bubble playoffs in the summer of 2020. In a full 82 game season, the last time the Canucks saw the post-season was the 2014-2015 season. This has raised doubt among some of whether the Canucks are Stanley Cup contenders this year, or if this will be a year of experience needed to prepare for dominance in future post-seasons. Should there be any concern? This answer can be found by examining a teams’ success in their first playoff appearance after missing the playoffs for the previous three or more seasons. The analyzed period will be teams from 1992-1993 to 2022-2023.
To avoid any cliffhangers by getting the main concern answered immediately, no team in the analyzed period has ever won the Stanley Cup in their first playoff appearance after missing for three or more seasons previously. There have been two finalists; the 2002-2003 Anaheim Ducks (at the time referred to as “The Mighty Ducks of Anaheim”) and the 2003-2004 Calgary Flames. These teams were a 7th seed and 6th seed respectively, and in the Stanley Cup Finals had to match up against the 2nd seeded and 1st seeded Eastern Conference teams respectively. Despite this, both teams took their favoured opponent to seven games, coming close to winning the Stanley Cup. The 2003 Ducks and 2004 Flames had one thing in common, which was elite goaltending. In fact, in 2003, J.S. Giguere, goaltender of the Ducks, became the 5th player in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe trophy for playoff MVP on a losing team. Miikka Kiprusoff was the starting goaltender for the Calgary Flames in 2004, and more than likely would have won playoff MVP had the Flames won the Stanley Cup. He would then win the Vezina trophy the following season, voted as the leagues best goaltender. All of this to say, the 2023-2024 Vancouver Canucks also have one of the best goaltenders in the league in Thatcher Demko, who would have been a Vezina favourite if not for his injury in the second half of the season. However, what the Canucks have that the Ducks and Flames didn’t is guaranteed home ice advantage throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs, as well as home-ice potential in the later rounds due to their league rank of #6.
Outside of these two cinderella runs, new playoff teams generally don’t go very far in the post-season. Since the 1992-1993 season, there have been 49 instances of teams playing in the post-season for the first time after a three or more year streak of no playoffs. Of these, 33 lost in the first round, which equates to 67.3%. For the teams that did make it past the first round, eight teams lost in round two, six teams lost in round three, and as mentioned previously, two teams have made it to the Stanley Cup Finals before losing.
Although the Canucks had an extraordinary season, it is actually not entirely uncommon to see a team that hasn’t made it to the playoffs in a few years to suddenly breakout with a 100+ point season. Of the 49 teams that fit into this post-season drought category from previous seasons, the Canucks finished with the 6th best points percentage. There have been 16 teams in this category that had 100+ points, or were on pace for 100+ points in shortened seasons, in which less than half of these teams made it past the first round, although there were five Conference Finals appearances.
Results of teams with a higher points percentage than the 2023-2024 Vancouver Canucks that had missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs in three or more of the previous seasons.
Something else that the Canucks have are players on their roster that have won a Stanley Cup previously with other teams. Although the main core of players have not won a Stanley Cup, Teddy Blueger won the Stanley Cup last season with the Vegas Golden Knights, and Ian Cole was a part of the back-to-back Stanley Cup wins with the 2016 and 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins. However, this is not necessarily anything unique to the Canucks compared to the list of 100+ point teams that were in a similar situation as the Canucks today, as 14 of 16 of those teams had at least one Stanley Cup winner on their roster, with the Canucks now making it 15 of 17.
Although there has not been a lot of success among teams in their first post-season after a three year drought, by loosening the guidelines slightly, there are cases of inexperienced teams having great success. The 2005-2006 Carolina Hurricanes are the most famous example. Although the Hurricanes went to the 2002 Stanley Cup Finals before losing, they would finish dead last the following season, and would miss the playoffs again in 2004. After the 2004-2005 lockout, the Hurricanes had a breakout season in 2005-2006, finishing 2nd in the Eastern Conference and winning the Stanley Cup, only to miss the playoffs in the following two seasons, making for one of the most improbable Stanley Cup champions of all time. The recent 2021 Montreal Canadiens are another team that would have joined the 2003 Ducks and 2004 Flames if not for the 2020 bubble playoffs, allowing the Canadiens to squeak in because of the play in round, thereby negating them from a three or more year streak of missing the playoffs. After four seasons of mediocrity from 2017-2018 up until and including the 2021 regular season, the Canadiens qualified for the playoffs thanks to a sub-par North Division. In the playoffs, Montreal suddenly flicked a switch, going all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before ultimately losing to the Lightning.
Some expansion teams have also seen success with little playoff experience. The most notable are the 2017-2018 Vegas Golden Knights, who were just three wins away from the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season. The 1995-1996 Florida Panthers went all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals in their third season after expanding, and their first time in the playoffs.
It is important to note that the 2019-2020 Vancouver Canucks team, one with the same core players as today, were one of the 16 teams who did win a round in their first time back in the playoffs. Because of this, the Canucks cannot be counted out from potentially going on a deep run in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, especially given that their path to the Conference Finals is seen by many to be easier than other division leaders based on potential matchups in the first two rounds. However, the numbers show that playoff experience is indeed important, and therefore it may be a limiting factor for the Canucks to go all the way and win the Stanley Cup in 2024.
If you are interested in similar topics that look at a teams’ Stanley Cup potential based on specific variables, be sure to check out if the Oilers’ poor start has an impact on their 2024 Stanley Cup odds by clicking here.