The Likelihood of a 2-0 Series Comeback

Currently in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, there are four teams that find themselves down 2-0, with the remaining four series seeing a split between the first two games. The Capitals, Islanders, and Lightning all lost their first two on the road, but now have a chance to get back in the series heading home for games three and four. The Stars are the only team who lost both of their first two games at home, and now need to get back into the series while heading to Vegas. The odds are stacked against all four of these teams to comeback and win the series, but just how grim are their chances?

Game two is one of the most crucial games in a seven game series. When a series is tied 1-1, the team who won game two to tie the series goes on to win the series 52.8% of the time. This is close to what would be expected if all variables were equal; which would be a 50% chance for either team to win when the series is tied 1-1, no matter who won game one or game two. However, teams that go up 2-0 in the series go on to win 86.3% of the time, meaning that teams that go down 2-0 win only 13.7% of the time. As a result, if a team lost the first game of the series, there is a 39.1% difference in probabilities of winning the series based on the outcome of game two.

There have been a total of 756 best-of-seven series since it was implemented as a regular occurrence in 1939 (there was one other best-of-seven series in 1919, but the best-of-seven format was otherwise not used until 1939). Of these 756 series, 402 times, or 53.2%, had a team go up 2-0 in the series. Of these 402 series, 31.8% end in a sweep, 26.1% end in five games, 26.4% end in six games, and the remaining 15.7% end in seven games. Also, of these 402 series, 55 times resulted in the team down 2-0 coming back to win, which equates to the 13.7% chance mentioned previously. Of the 55 teams that came back from a 2-0 series deficit, 45.4% won four in a row to take the series in six, with the remaining 54.5% winning in seven games.

When a series goes to seven games after one team was up 2-0, there is a near 50% chance either team will win the game seven.

When looking at the home team versus road team data, it is more valuable to focus on recent history, since home-ice advantage is not as prominent in the salary cap era as it once was in previous eras. This assumption is based on the number of total road wins in a season having gone up in the salary cap era.

There have been 138 series since the 2006 post-season that had one team go up 2-0. Of these, 20 teams came back to win for a rate of 14.5%, only slightly higher than the total rate of 13.7%. Also of these 138 series, the home team went up in the series 63.0% of the time, of which they won 86.2% of their series in this scenario. The road team went up 2-0 in the remaining 37.0% of the time, of which they would hold on to win their series 84.3% of the time. Although the initial assumption might be that losing both games at home and then catching up on the road is worse than heading home for game three while down 2-0, the numbers for comebacks are slightly in favour of the higher seeded teams that lose their first two home games of the series. However, the difference is negligible, and likely explained by the fact that higher seeds are generally better teams, whether they are playing at home or not. This bodes well for the Dallas Stars, as they are the only team of the four in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs to go down 2-0 heading to their opponents rink for game three.

Matrix of home versus road team scenarios when a team goes up 2-0 (shown as numbers)

Matrix of home versus road team scenarios when a team goes up 2-0 (shown as percentages)

As seen, it is unlikely that a team will come back from 2-0, regardless of if the team down 2-0 is the home or road team. However, it is common enough that because there are currently four series at 2-0, it would not be surprising to see at least one comeback among these series. If there is a series comeback, it is more than likely going to be a seven game series, especially for the Dallas Stars given that home teams down 2-0 rarely win the next four in a row compared to when road teams are down 2-0. If any of these teams can win the next three out of four games, the seventh game in the series is historically a toss up, and tends to favour the road team slightly.

In recent years, teams that were in the Dallas Stars’ situation and came back after going down 2-0 at home include the 2023 New Jersey Devils in the ECQF, the 2018 Washington Capitals in the ECQF, the 2017 Anaheim Ducks in the WCSF, the 2011 Boston Bruins in the ECQF, the 2009 Washington Capitals in the ECQF, and the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes in the ECQF. From this list, three teams went on to win the Stanley Cup. In general, Stanley Cup winning teams do not usually see a 2-0 series deficit. However, some noticeable occurrences include the 2018 Washington Capitals, the 2014 Los Angeles Kings, the 2011 Boston Bruins (two times), the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins, and the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes. While Stanley Cup calibre teams generally don’t go down 2-0 in a series, it is also true that Stanley Cup calibre teams overcome adversity and do not go down without a fight.

Although the chances for a comeback are evidently low for the Capitals, Islanders, Lightning, and Stars, there has been at least one 2-0 series comeback in each of the last three post-seasons. Additionally, although some stats such as shot totals and shot attempts can show if a series is lopsided, such as the Hurricanes-Islanders series, the scoreboard has generally been close in all four of these series. Because of this, none of these four teams can be completely written off until game three has been played.

If you enjoyed this article and want to learn about other key trends, be sure to check out our article that highlights a favourable trend for the Bruins, Avalanche, and Panthers by clicking here. Subscribe below so you never miss a new article or blog post.