Is the Slow Start for the Edmonton Oilers a Concern for Their Stanley Cup Odds?
The 2023-2024 Edmonton Oilers had an infamously poor start to their season, especially given the expectations they had based on promising performances in previous seasons. Seven games in, the Oilers had an abysmal record of 1-5-1. Twelve games in, their record was 2-9-1. At the 18 game mark, the Oilers were 5-12-1. For most teams, this slow start would be a season-ending dagger. However, many gave the Oilers the benefit of the doubt given their expectations, as well as the talent present on their roster. Their 5-12-1 record was achieved after losing to the Sharks, the worst team in the league. As a result, after winning their next game against the Kraken, the Oilers made a coaching change. Since Kris Knoblauch took over behind the bench, the Oilers have salvaged their season and then some, which includes an eight game winning streak, as well as a nearly record breaking 16 game winning streak. However, does this mean their slow start is completely irrelevant?
When looking historically, it appears that strong starts are an important component en route to winning the Stanley Cup. This can be analyzed by observing the points percentage of each Stanley Cup champion at certain sections of the season. Points percentage is calculated by taking a teams current points (Wins x2 + extra points; extra points being either overtime losses or shootout losses, or ties in pre-lockout seasons) and dividing by the number of total points available (games played x2). By segmenting the first quarter into 20 games for 82 game seasons, and dividing total games by four for the 48, 56, 80, and 84 games seasons, every Stanley Cup Champion since the 1990 Oilers has had a points percentage greater than or equal to 50%, except for the infamous 2018-2019 St. Louis Blues, who had a Q1 record of 7-10-3, and a points percentage of 43%. The 2023-2024 Edmonton Oilers had a record of 8-12-1 in the first quarter of the season, which equates to a points percentage of 40%. This is lower than any Stanley Cup champion in the modern era. If we narrow down the start to the first fifteen games instead of the first quarter, no Stanley Cup champion has ever had a points percentage under 50%. Even the 2018-2019 St. Louis Blues had a 6-6-3 record in their first 15 games, equating to a 50% points percentage, which is superior to the Oilers’ 5-9-1 record and 37% points percentage.
Although the general assumption is that heading into the playoffs with a hot record is more important for Stanley Cup success than early season woes, and it certainly is true that Q4 is the most important quarter, it cannot be understated just how important it is for successful teams to have a hot start. This is because a strong start builds a points cushion in the standings, in the sense that teams do not need to stress and play a style of desperate hockey that teams closer to the playoff line will need to play later in the season, which could then lead to fatigue by the time the playoffs begin. Instead, teams with that strong start will not be as panicked after crucial losses later in the season. The importance of a strong start is evident by the 2023-2024 Los Angeles Kings, who had a 16-4-3 record 23 games into the season. However, in late December 2023, the Kings would go on a 2-8-6 run, dropping towards the playoff line. They would eventually bounce back after a coaching change, however, if not for their extremely strong start, they may very well have missed the 2024 playoffs.
20 out of 33 Champions had a better Q1 than Q4. Only two teams had a Q1 points percentage less than 50%, and only two teams had a Q4 points percentage less than 50%.
Although the Oilers had a first quarter, and a first 15 game stretch that is worse than any Stanley Cup champion when looking back to 1990, this does not mean that the Oilers’ hopes to win a Stanley Cup in 2024 are nonexistent. As seen as recently as 2019, a slow start is not relevant when you have a fantastic second half of the season. The 2018-2019 St. Louis Blues had a coaching change, as well as a rookie goalie who shined and took the number one spot, making the Blues a much different looking team by the end of the season as their struggling selves earlier on. Similarly, the Edmonton Oilers also had a coaching change and saw immediate success afterwards. Therefore, it is very unlikely that any of the 2023-2024 Edmonton Oilers’ early season concerns will still be relevant heading into the playoffs, and should not be considered as a significant variable when deciding if the Oilers will win the 2024 Stanley Cup.
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