Negative Goal Differential: A Simple Method to Disregard Teams From Winning a Stanley Cup

The statistic “Goal Differential” is simply calculated by goals for (number of goals a team scores) minus goals against (number of goals a team allows). While the formula implies the fact that good teams will inevitably have a positive goal differential, and struggling teams will inevitably have a negative goal differential, there will often be at least one team that makes the playoffs each year with a negative goal differential. This can happen if a team consistently wins close one or two-goal games, but also loses by large margins relatively frequently. Another cause are teams that actually do lose more than they win, but a lot of their losses come from extra time, giving them additional loser points, and therefore they make the playoffs with a losing record and a negative goal differential. An example of a team that fits both causes are the 2011-2012 Florida Panthers. Throughout their season, they had eight games where they won by three or more goals. On the contrary, they had 15 games where they had lost by three or more goals. Similarly, only once did they win by five or more goals, whereas they lost by five or more goals four times. Additionally, they had a losing record of 38-26-18, which implies that a staggering 58% of their regulation losses came by a three or more goal margin. Despite winning less than half of their games, the 18 loser points propelled them to win their division. With this example in mind, it is easy to see how some teams can still make the playoffs despite having a negative goal differential. This analysis will also include teams with an even zero goal differential (same number of goals for as goals against).

Exactly how common is it to see a team make the playoffs with a negative or zero goal differential? Since the 1989-1990 season, the starting season for analyzing this data, there have been 65 occurrences, seven of which are zero goal differentials. This means that today, nearing the 2024 playoffs, there are roughly two teams out of 16 each post-season with a negative goal differential. However, it has become increasingly more rare over time, with just 26 occurrences in the salary cap era beginning in 2005-2006, translating to about three teams for every two post-seasons having a negative goal differential. However, any statistic that can quickly narrow down a championship bet from 1/16 to 1/15 or 1/14 is helpful.

Why is this statistic a quick filtering tool? Because no team since the 1989-1990 season has ever won the Stanley Cup with a negative goal differential. Only four teams have made it to the Stanley Cup Finals; the 1990-1991 Minnesota North Stars, the 1992-1993 Los Angeles Kings, the 2001-2002 Carolina Hurricanes (zero goal differential) and the 2021 Montreal Canadiens. However, three of these teams lost in just five games in their respective finals, and the North Stars lost in six. This gives teams with a negative goal differential a 6.2% finals appearance rate, which is much lower than the expected rate of 12.5% if all teams were equal (one team of eight in each conference goes to the finals). In the 2005-2006 salary cap era, this rate diminishes to 3.8%, or 1/26.

Six of the 65 occurrences lost in the third round, equating to a third round appearance rate of 15.4% when including the four finalists, which is lower than the expected rate of 25%. Half of these six occurrences took place among the 1991 and 1992 playoffs, with the other half taking place in the salary cap era. The 2016-2017 Ottawa Senators are the only team with a negative goal differential to take a third or fourth round opponent to seven games.

Eight times has a team with a negative goal differential escaped round one, only to lose in the second round. This results in a second round rate of 27.7% when accounting for the 10 teams that have also made it to the third and fourth rounds, much lower than the expected 50% if all teams had an equal chance of winning. However, the majority of these occurrences took place in the pre-salary cap era. Since 2005-2006, the 2011-2012 Capitals are the only team that fits the second round loss criteria, resulting in a salary cap era round one success rate of just 19.2%. This is surprisingly lower than the 27.7% success rate when including all instances since 1989-1990, given that series upsets are far common in the modern era, and league parity has become increasingly more prevalent.

So what does all of this mean? Well, it is pretty clear that teams with a zero or negative goal differential are probably not as dominant as the top contenders, who usually have more than a +50 goal differential. However, it is nonetheless important to realize that not only has a team that fits this criteria never won the Stanley Cup during the analyzed period, but that they will also most likely be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. This can help make quick decisions when making picks on who will win a series, or who will win the Stanley Cup. While this variable alone is likely not strong enough to make a confident decision on winning round one of the playoffs, there is enough evidence to suggest that writing off a team with a negative goal differential from winning the Stanley Cup is a rational decision. Currently, there are two playoff teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a negative goal differential; the New York Islanders (-17) and the Washington Capitals (-37). This means that the Islanders or Capitals are unlikely to win the 2024 Stanley Cup.

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