Magic Number 56 Shows Promise for the Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, & Florida Panthers
The Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche and Florida Panthers have an important trend in common; that is 56 or more wins in one of the previous two seasons. In the 2021-2022 NHL season, the Florida Panthers won the presidents trophy with 58 wins and 122 points. In that same 2021-2022 season, the Colorado Avalanche finished close behind the Panthers with 56 wins and 119 points. In the 2022-2023 season, the Boston Bruins set a new NHL record with 65 wins and 135 points. Looking historically, most teams that have won 56 or more games in a season have won the Stanley Cup in one of the following two seasons. The following chart shows all instances of 56 or more wins since the 1967-1968 expansion, as well as instances of teams in shortened seasons that were on pace for 56 or more wins in a full season.
Note: Values in the “Wins” column followed by an * indicates projected wins for a full 82 game season.
As seen by the above chart, the 1992-1993 Pittsburgh Penguins are the only team to have a 56+ win season and not win the Stanley Cup in the following two seasons. However, they did win the previous two Stanley Cups. When including teams that were projected to achieve 56+ wins in shortened seasons (1995, 2013, 2019-2020, and 2021), the 2013 Penguins join the list as the second team to not win the Stanley Cup in the following two seasons, as their 36 wins in 48 games translates to an expected 61 wins in 82 games. However, by extending the rule to an extra year, they did win the Stanley Cup in 2016, and again in 2017.
So teams that win, or teams that were projected to win 56+ games have had immense success in following seasons. Is this because the 56 win threshold is a magic number? Or is achieving a 56+ win season a sign of an extremely talented team that is bound to win a Stanley Cup soon simply due to the fact that good teams usually win? Whatever the case is, the majority of these teams actually had worse regular seasons in the years they did ultimately win the Stanley Cup when compared to their 56+ win season. One of the most famous examples is the 2017-2018 Washington Capitals. After winning the presidents trophy in both the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 seasons as the best regular season team, their roster was noticeably leaner in the 2017-2018 season.
Some of their roster losses included Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner, Nate Schmidt, Justin Williams, and Marcus Johansson, with only minor names being added to replace these players. Despite this, they finally broke through their playoff woes and won the 2018 Stanley Cup. This leads to the theory that some bring up, which is that great teams :learn their lesson” and pace themselves to be ready for playoff hockey. What this means is that by winning so many games, teams are not playing any meaningful games down the last stretch of the season, having clinched an early playoff spot, and are rudely awakened when the games are suddenly important in the playoffs. This case was most noticeable with the 1995-1996 Red Wings and 2018-2019 Tampa Bay Lightning, where both teams were far and away the best regular season teams, but looked completely different in the playoffs. The 1996-1997 Red Wings and 2019-2020 Lightning were far less dominant than their previous regular seasons, yet found great success in the playoffs.
In the current 2023-2024 season, three teams have pending results for this trend are the Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, and Florida Panthers. The Bruins have been cup contenders for quite a few seasons now, and could realistically win the Stanley Cup in 2024. While their roster is not as deep offensively as their record setting 2022-2023 roster, their playoff experience and current regular season shows that they should not be taken lightly.
The Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup in their 56 win season, and after a disappointing exit from the 2023 playoffs, the Avalanche have had a strong 4th quarter to the 2023-2024 regular season and could realistically win another Stanley Cup.
The Florida Panthers are probably the most interesting case of these three teams. After a dominant 2021-2022 campaign, where they scored more goals in a single season than any other team in the salary cap era, but ultimately lost to their state rival Tampa Bay Lightning, they were on the verge of missing the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs. Despite sneaking in as the 2nd Wild Card team, they knocked off the record setting Boston Bruins in round 1 en route to the Stanley Cup Finals, coming close to adding their name to the list of teams to complete this trend. However, an unfavourable counter trend for the Florida Panthers is the success rate of finalists in following seasons. Since the Oilers won the Stanley Cup in 1984, the year after losing in the finals in 1983, the 2009 Penguins are the only team to win the Stanley Cup after losing in the finals the year before. The rate of finalists winning the Stanley Cup the following season is much lower than Stanley Cup champions repeating. However, it is never too late to start a new pattern and break the current trend.
Despite the 56+ win variable showing a significant correlation with Stanley Cup success in following years, the league continues to become more unpredictable after every passing season. As a result, this trend should be taken with a grain of salt. However, it is nonetheless an interesting trend to take into account before making any betting decisions related to picking a Stanley Cup champion in 2024.