Why NHL Teams Play Better at Home Than on the Road

There is a reason that in sports there is a phrase “home-field advantage” or “home-court advantage” or, in hockey, “home-ice advantage”. It is not a coincidence that since the 1989-1990 season, there hasn’t been a single regular season where road teams won more than half of the games.

The 2010-2011 season is the closest the league has come to winning more than half the games on the road (48.1%).

The home team winning more often is typically the case in all sports, and the fact that this exists proves how important qualitative factors are, and how outside factors have significant impacts on the game that advanced analytics aren’t always able to capture. Hockey in particular has an additional component that is unique to the sport that gives the home team an extra advantage, which will be covered in the first point in the list of reasons why NHL teams play better at home than on the road on average.

Last Change

As mentioned, hockey has a unique component to the game that theoretically gives home teams an extra advantage, and that is “last change”. Last change is utilized before face-offs, where the road team will put on their five players, and the home team gets to deploy its five players afterwards, often for the purpose of optimally matching up with the road teams’ players. For example, teams will often have “checking lines” that serve the purpose of shutting down the opposing teams’ top lines, and as long as the checking line minimizes the opposing teams’ top line from scoring, the job is considered a success, regardless of how many goals the checking line scores. Essentially, being able to counter the road teams’ line with your favourable matchup on every line change is a significant advantage, and gives the home team more freedom to play out their strategy.

Of course, having favourable matchups is not necessarily game breaking, as the most significant factor will almost always be which team is playing better, but having that choice gives home teams an advantage.

Familiarity and Routine

Falling under the category of a qualitative factor, the players’ familiarity with their city and their ability to operate with a routine may reap significant benefits on game days. If a player wakes up in their own house, drives their own car, eats their own food, etc, it can have a significant benefit due to feeling comfortable and being in a routine.

However, there is some debate on this, as some believe traveling on the road with teammates is a positive bonding experience, and allows players to limit personal distractions. The statistics would be in favour of this, as the average winning percentage of all home games within a home-stand great than three games (four or more games) dating back to the 1989-1990 season is 51.9%, whereas all home games in that time have a win rate of 52.3% of the time, suggesting that longer home-stands may actually be a detriment. As a result, this factor has multiple sides to it, but regardless, has the ability to explain why either a home team or a road team would have an advantage in different scenarios.

Fans

Another factor that is similar among all sports is the fan support, as fan support provides psychological benefits to the players of the home team. One study found that cheering from the crowd increases effort levels by 7% according to a sport psychology article written by InnerDrive found here.

Additionally, and perhaps more significantly, recent research has shown that fans have a significant impact on the officials making calls. This could be in the form of a crowd reaction to a penalty that is occurring and subconsciously helps the ref make a decision, or a negative reaction to a non-call or a penalty call on the home team, which subconsciously impacts any future decisions of the referee to call a penalty on the road team. This topic is discussed in further detail by psychology expert Daniel Wann in an interview with the American Psychology Association. The full interview and transcript can be found here.

One interesting point is the fact that in high-stakes games, such as game sevens, sometimes there may be more pressure playing in front of a crowd cheering you on. However, this idea is not supported by the statistics, as home teams have won nearly 60% of all game sevens in NHL history.

Common Misconception - Rest Versus Fatigue

One factor that surprisingly doesn’t explain the home versus road record discrepancy to a significant degree is fatigue. It is often thought that teams that are tired due to playing more often may be tired and have a slower step in their game than a rested team. However, the data does not necessarily support this, as since the 1989-1990 season, the average winning percentage of all road games in total, average winning percentage of road games within a road trip that consisted of four or more games, and the winning percentage on back-to-back games, which are common on road trips, were all more or less the same, within only a tenth of a percentage difference. The findings were the same when changing the sample period to since the 2005-2006 season.

While this does seem unexpected, and that tired teams should theoretically lose more than a rested team, there is a pull in the opposite direction, where teams actually tend to benefit from being in a rhythm and routine with little breaks in between games. This is especially true for playoff hockey, and although playoff statistics were not taken into consideration in this analysis, there is a Slapshot Bets’ article here that dives into the topic of rest and if it is actually beneficial.

While the NHL has seen an increase in road teams winning when compared to the early 1990s, we are still yet to see an NHL season where road teams win more than half of all games in a regular season. Although the game continues to evolve, these factors will always support the home team and will make it unlikely that there will be a full season where the road teams win the majority of the games.