The Rise in Empty-Net Goals

Hockey is one of the few sports that allows for a team to pull their goaltender for an extra attacker, usually a forward, to try and score a goal, or multiple, in a final attempt to tie the hockey game late in the third period. Very rarely there are instances of goalie pulls in a tie game, but that is an entirely different discussion for another day. Of course, although the team playing 6-on-5 has a higher chance of scoring than if it was 5-on-5, the opposing team has the opportunity to score on the empty net, making it a fair rule. However, the strategies surrounding the empty net has changed drastically over the years, and as a result, the average number of empty net goals scored has increased noticeably in recent seasons.

Note: 2025 statistics were taken after all completed games on March 21, 2025.

As seen by the graph, since the 2005-2006 season, the average number of empty net goals scored by a team has nearly tripled, and this trend began to increase noticeably since the 2013-2014 season. In fact, at the point in time where the Colorado Avalanche have 12 games remaining in the 24-25 season, they have already set a new record for most empty net goals in a single season with 25, breaking the previous record of 24 held by the 15-16 Dallas Stars. The Tampa Bay Lightning have currently tied the record at 24 ENG with 14 games remaining in the 24-25 season. The San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks have the fewest ENG scored so far, with six. To put that into perspective, the 2005-2006 average was 5.93, slightly less than the 2024-2025 minimum, and the season hasn’t finished yet. In the 2005-2006 season, the Pittsburgh Penguins had scored zero empty net goals, while the Philadelphia Flyers led the league with just 12.

While many aspects of the game have remained similar within the salary cap era, there is undeniable evidence that the dynamics around the empty net has changed drastically. While there does not appear to be available data on the average time remaining that a goalie is pulled, it is clear that strategies around pulling the goalie has changed over time. Current Islanders’ head coach Patrick Roy, who is the former head coach of the Colorado Avalanche, is one of the most notorious coaches regarding the goalie pull, as he shocked the hockey world on December 5, 2014 when he pulled goaltender Semyon Varlamov with over 13 minutes left in the third period when the Avalanche were down 5-1 with a two-man advantage. The Avalanche would score with the ensuing 6-on-3, but would ultimately lose the game 6-2. In another example, on November 25, 2015, the Avalanche were losing 4-1 with approximately 10 minutes remaining in the game. Roy decided to pull the goalie, and the Avalanche scored shortly after. Roy would pull the goalie again, in which the Avs would score again. After capitalizing on these strategic goalie pulls, the score was now 4-3 with approximately 7:30 left in the game, where Roy would refrain from pulling the goalie again until a later time. Aside from some extreme cases, Roy had generally introduced earlier goalie pulling practices, as it was not uncommon for Roy to pull the goalie with close to three-minutes left in a one-goal game. Because Patrick Roy joined the league as a head coach in the 2013-2014 season, right before the first initial spike, it can be theorized that Roy himself is the pioneer for the modern goalie pulling strategies. Whether he is or isn’t, it is true that coaches league-wide have adopted earlier goalie pulling habits than what was seen in past years, where it was rare to see a goalie being pulled in a one-goal game prior to the 90-second mark.

Another goalie pulling habit that has seemed to have become more prevalent is pulling the goalie despite being down by multiple goals. While it is rare to see a coach attempt a goalie pull when down by four or more goals, it is not uncommon to see a goalie pull when down by three goals with approximately five minutes remaining. This is something that was much less common in the NHL previously. Similarly, another rising theme seems to be pulling the goalie again after allowing an empty net goal, where a team does not give up on trying to tie the game, even if they already allowed an empty net goal. The only time in NHL history that this paid off was on January 25, 2020, when the Washington Capitals became the first, and so far only team to win a game despite allowing an empty net goal. Down 3-2, the San Jose Sharks scored on the empty net to make it 4-2. The Capitals, feeling like they had nothing to lose, kept the goalie pulled, scoring twice in the final minute, and again in overtime to win the game. This strategy was far less common in the past, where perhaps coaches saw such little probability in coming back that they instead elected to avoid more goals against in case that hurt the teams’ differential, a potential tie-breaking stat for playoff qualification. Again, the data on goalie pulling appears to be minimal, but these trends have seemed to be apparent and noticeable enough to help explain the rise in empty net goals.

The final explanation revolves around the player strategies, and how the defending players approach an empty net opportunity. In recent years, there seems to have been a development of a much different strategy around draining the clock when defending a 6-on-5. In the past, it was heavily frowned upon for a player to ice the puck. Players would either look for openings to skate down the ice and attempt a shot once past the red line, or, more commonly, players would dump the puck out softly in an attempt to clear the zone without icing the puck, forcing the opposing team to re-enter the zone. However, it has appeared that more recent strategies revolve around shooting for the empty net no matter where you are on the ice, where a failed shot attempt that results in an icing is still worth the attempt as opposed to clearing the zone without an intention to score. However, this explanation is much more anecdotal, as according to moneypuck.com and their shooting data, the average shot distance on empty nets, as well as the average distance that empty net goals are scored, has not shown any increasing trends.

The Significance

The reason why this trend is so important is because the empty net rule that is inherent to hockey has a significant impact on sports betting. Whether a bet is placed on the over/under or the spread, the empty net can make or break a bet. For example, if someone places a bet on a favourite to win at -1.5, meaning that team must win by at least two goals, a late empty net goal in a one-goal game would be the difference maker in whether that bet is won or lost. With this increasing trend of empty net goals being scored, there are simultaneously less one-goal games. However, most sports books are already well aware of this, which is why it is important to pair these trends with other insights to come to the most informed predictions.

Decline in proportion of one-goal games in part due to the rise in empty net goals