The Truth About Rebuilds
In the NHL, teams go through different stages over a long-term period of seasons. Some teams are Stanley Cup contenders where they expect to be good enough to win the Stanley Cup, some teams are playoff contenders where they expect to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, among other categories of teams. One of these categories is the rebuilding team, where the rebuilding stage is either defined by intentionally trading players for prospects and draft picks with goal of ranking low in the standings to continuously accumulate top picks for the near future, or a natural state of a team where the core players have aged, leading to a natural rebuild. For some fans, a rebuild is seen as an attractive option when their team seems to be stuck in a “limbo” stage, where they are not good enough to compete for a Stanley Cup, but not bad enough to accumulate high draft picks. However, as outlined in this article, a formal rebuild is not always as easy and exciting as it may seem from the success stories. Here is the truth about rebuilds, and why teams may want to avoid them unless there are no other options.
Incentive from the Team Owner and Other Stakeholders
Before even looking into any quantitative examples of success or failures from rebuilding teams, we first need to consider the real-life consequences of a rebuild for the stakeholders involved. Committing to a rebuild means committing to what is most likely three or more years of regular season failure, which is a lot of time to not be winning for the coaches involved, veteran players involved, and the owner.
For coaches, some may be repelled from a rebuilding team, aware of the risk that a bad record has on their resume and future job prospects, even if that record isn’t necessarily their fault. Additionally, coaches on a rebuilding team run the risk of being used as a vehicle to develop young players and endure their team through the rebuild, before eventually getting replaced by a more experienced and proven coach once the team is set to compete.
A rebuilding team must acquire veteran players to mentor the young prospects of the team in all areas of the game, including the behavioural and psychological aspects of the game that cannot be easily measured statistically. However, if a veteran player is aware of the circumstances and doesn’t believe a rebuilding team will be breaking out anytime soon, it may prevent veteran free-agents from signing with the team. While there will almost always be some veteran players willing to join a team ranked low in the standings, the quality of veteran players may be lower. This is especially true for players still looking for their first Stanley Cup, or players who have not seen playoff success for many years and want to get back to winning. Additionally, convincing players to join a rebuilding team may require a premium signing above what the player would get on the market, however, this is typically not an issue due to the fact that most rebuilding teams have significant salary cap space.
The final stakeholder, and probably the most significant decision maker for dictating whether a rebuild will happen or not, is the owner. Since rebuilds take time, committing to a rebuild also runs the risk of financial hits, such as fewer ticket sales from fans who aren’t interested in watching a losing team. Although a team stuck in limbo, where they are not good enough to be contenders but not bad enough to accumulate top draft picks, is likely to be less successful in the long-run, a team owner may prefer this over a rebuild if it means more revenue from fan attendance and activity to support a team that can win approximately half of their games.
The Number of Factors Involved for a Rebuild to be Successful
For a rebuilding team to be successful, there are many factors that must go right. Firstly, they typically need to have multiple top prospects among both forwards and defence. A top goalie prospect is also helpful, but is not as vital due to the nature of goaltenders, and that they usually peak later in their career compared to forwards and defencemen. While acquiring top prospects is easier when you are selling off assets for first-round draft picks and finishing low in the standings, there is no guarantee that these prospects will pan out to their full potential, and ensuring that they do takes significant effort, in part from ensuring they are mentored by the appropriate coaching staff and veteran players. This also requires precise timing, knowing when a player is truly ready to play consistent NHL games, or if they should remain in the minors to continue to develop. There is a fine line between rushing a player into the roster to speed up the rebuild, and leaving a player in the minors for too long, where their development would be better accelerated in the NHL. Similarly, even at the NHL level, precise work needs to be done to decide on optimal ice time for prospects to develop. Balancing the different speeds of development also needs to be considered, as some prospects will be NHL ready before others, even if they are the same age. Because of these different factors, it is very possible that years after the decision to rebuild, teams may be further behind their plan if multiple prospects are developing slower than expected. This can cause impatience to become competitive again, and prompt irrational decisions that sway away from the time-consuming rebuilding plan.
The Prominence of Luck
While there have been major success stories from historical rebuilds, there is often significant luck involved for rebuilding teams to eventually get to the final result. Two recent examples of successful rebuilding teams include the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Chicago Blackhawks, both of which had luck on their side. This is not to say they got lucky, as both teams were well managed and made intelligent trades, drafts, and signings, however, it does point towards helpful events that some rebuilding teams may not be so fortunate to have.
The Pittsburgh Penguins rebuild took place during the 2001-2006 seasons. After losing in the 2001 Eastern Conference Finals, the Pittsburgh Penguins traded star forward Jaromir Jagr to the Washington Capitals, in part due to off-ice conflicts. In the following off-season, the Penguins lost Robert Lang to free agency, as he signed with the aforementioned Washington Capitals. At the 2003 trade deadline, the Penguins would trade star forward Alexei Kovalev to the New York Rangers, leaving the team with only Martin Straka and an aging and injury-prone Mario Lemieux among their veteran star players. However, during the 2003-2004 season, Straka would be traded to the Kings. Although Lemieux would be on the verge of retirement, the Penguins had drafted Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin, and Sidney Crosby by the beginning of the 2005 regular season. While teams near the bottom of the standings have the best odds to acquire top picks in the draft, the Penguins were fortunate that they managed to acquire the 2005 first overall pick to draft Sidney Crosby despite not having a 2004-2005 season.
For the 2005 draft order, a weighted average was assigned among the past three seasons, where teams were categorized based on playoff appearances in the past three seasons, and first overall picks in the past four drafts. Three lottery balls each were assigned to teams which had not qualified for any of the past three playoffs and received no first overall picks in that period. Teams which had one playoff appearance or one first overall pick in those years were given two lottery balls, and all remaining teams received one lottery ball (source: 2005 NHL Entry Draft). Since the Penguins’ first overall pick in 2003 was originally the Panthers’ pick, the Penguins had technically not won the draft lottery in any of the previous four seasons, resulting in the Penguins having the best odds for the 2005 first-overall pick, tied with three other teams. While one could argue this is not luck, as they were tied for having the best odds, an element of luck still exists when four different teams have a 6.3% chance of winning the draft lottery as the best odds in the league. The Penguins would then draft one of the greatest players in NHL history, Sidney Crosby.
With Lemieux in Pittsburgh for one more season, the Penguins had acquired veterans such as Mark Recchi and John LeClair to help with the development of Sidney Crosby, and then Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal when they joined the following season. Although the Penguins placed second-last in the 2005-2006 regular season, they would immediately become successful the following season, eventually seeing over a full decade of continuous success, highlighted by three Stanley Cups. Although the Penguins displayed a textbook rebuild, it is important to note that the timing of this rebuild along with the luck involved made their story difficult to replicate. Drafting two generational talents in back-to-back drafts is a feat that most rebuilding teams could only dream of.
The Chicago Blackhawks are another example of a team that quickly exited the basement and won a championship in a short period of time. After finishing among the bottom three teams in the Western Conference every season from 2003-2004 to 2006-2007, and missing the playoffs every season from 2002-2003 until 2007-2008, the Blackhawks accumulated valuable early first round draft picks, particularly Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, as well as other first round draft picks such as Brent Seabrook, who was a 14th overall pick in 2003. The Blackhawks lucky moment was related to the drafting of Patrick Kane, where the Blackhawks received the 2007 first overall pick despite finishing fifth-last in the 2006-2007 NHL standings, resulting in an 8.1% chance to acquire the first overall pick, which are odds much lower than typical lottery winners.
However, the Blackhawks also made smart trades, such as acquiring Patrick Sharp for almost nothing, and bringing in experienced players such as Martin Havlat in the 2006 off-season. Unlike the Penguins who had three core players drafted at either #1 or #2, the Blackhawks built their core Stanley Cup winning teams in large part thanks to hidden gems found in later rounds of the NHL draft. Duncan Keith, Corey Crawford, Dustin Byfuglien, Troy Brouwer, and Niklas Hjalmarsson were all picked at 52nd or later in just four drafts from 2002 to 2005. Thanks to skilled drafting, and a bit of luck winning the draft lottery in 2007 en route to drafting Patrick Kane, the Chicago Blackhawks successfully went from bottom of the standings to a modern day dynasty.
Other notable teams that successfully rebuilt in recent history include the Los Angeles Kings and the Washington Capitals.
The Current State of Rebuilding Teams
Despite previous success stories, other teams have not been so fortunate. Most recently, the Anaheim Ducks, Buffalo Sabres, Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, and San Jose Sharks are all in the process of a formal rebuild, with some teams further along than others. Of these teams, the Chicago Blackhawks are the only team to have made the post-season in any year since 2019-2020, and that was due to the 2020 extended playoffs that gave 24 teams the opportunity to qualify for the usual 16-team format. If not for that, the 2018-2019 San Jose Sharks are the last of these teams to have made the playoffs. In other words, in the past four seasons going back to the 2021 shortened season, these five teams have a combined zero playoff appearances. What all five of these teams have in common is the intentional construction of poor teams in order to finish near the base of the standings.
For the case of the Ducks, Blackhawks, Red Wings, and Sharks, their aging cores that they had for many years previously were nearing retirement and required a new direction, beginning the journey to acquire draft picks and begin building a new core. These are situations that are the most understandable for a rebuild, as there are very few alternative options. The Sharks are the best example of this, as their aging players being attached to expensive contracts handcuffed them from making trades to improve their aging team, and particularly their aging blue-line. While there is heavy optimism in San Jose due to significant prospects among all positions, the Ducks and Red Wings have been rebuilding at a slow pace, with fans eager to return for the playoffs, and the Blackhawks have a shallower prospect pool compared to the Sharks, with Connor Bedard being one of the main highlights for their future. Similar to the Sharks, the Blackhawks have only recently been able to begin their formal rebuild, as Kane, Keith, and Toews have left the team only relatively recently.
In the case of the Senators, their rebuild began in part due to off-ice issues, in turn leading to both Mike Hoffman and Erik Karlsson being moved within two seasons after reaching the 2016-2017 Eastern Conference Finals. After Mark Stone was traded during the 2018-2019 season, the rebuild officially began in Ottawa. Unfortunately, general managers have limited leverage in cases of off-ice issues, and sometimes are forced into making changes, where in this case it sparked a rebuild. Additionally, the returns on core players are usually not as high when other teams know of off-ice drama, as othe rgeneral managers can offer less than market value due to the circumstances. Currently, optimism is finally apparent in Ottawa again, although the level of success of their rebuild will be inconclusive until they qualify for the playoffs.
Finally are the Buffalo Sabres, perhaps the best example to repel future general managers from a formal rebuild if there are other options available. The Sabres have been rebuilding for well over a decade now, having not made the playoffs since the 2010-2011 season. Their rebuild can be traced to the 2013 and 2013-2014 seasons, where they moved on from Tomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Ryan Miller. Despite building an optimistic core of players in future years, the Buffalo Sabres would eventually go into a re-tool. While the Sabres did successfully swap Ryan O’Reilly for Tage Thompson and Jack Eichel for Alex Tuch, the Sabres are still yet to figure out a winning formula. Their player development has not been bad, however, they have a track record of developing players finding more success elsewhere. Forward Jack Eichel, forward Sam Reinhart, the previously mentioned forward Ryan O’Reilly, defenceman Brandon Montour, goaltender Robin Lehner, and goaltender Linus Ullmark are all examples of players who were relatively young and developing under the Sabres system, who eventually found more success on other teams, with the first four players mentioned all winning Stanley Cups elsewhere. Since beginning their rebuild in 2013, the Sabres have acquired two first-overall picks, two-second overall picks, and nine top 10 draft picks, most of which have been well developed under the Sabres’ system, yet many of whom are no longer with the team. For the Sabres specifically, the pressure of breaking the longest playoff drought in NHL history may also have a psychological impact on the players, as the “losing culture” that has developed has made players frustrated, most infamously Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel shortly before both players left. Fans have also been upset with management decisions, and most recently the comments made by general manager Kevyn Adams, partially blaming the Sabres’ woes on the fact that the city itself is not as desirable for players as other cities, stating that “there are no palm trees in Buffalo”.
While each of the six rebuilding teams have gone through different journeys, and the Blackhawks and Sharks are near the beginning of their official rebuild, these rebuilding teams have shown that the process is not as glamorous as the success stories make it seem. Not only does rebuilding take time, but even when a team does successfully rebuild, there is no guarantee that they will be able to compete with the likes of top teams that have been able to maintain success, or went through a slight down turn before re-tooling.
The Alternative
While sometimes there are no other options outside of a rebuild, there are many instances where a re-tool may make more sense. A re-tool is defined as a team making notable changes and finding a new direction, while also protecting the core talent of most players on the team. For example, if a team has a core of four or five players, a re-tool may involve trading one or two of these core players to improve a weak spot on the team, while keeping other core players. Some example of re-tools include the late 2000s Lightning, where they went through a down period, trading Brad Richards, while not giving up on their core players of Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier. Simultaneously, the Lightning would accumulate prospects Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman. The late 2010s Avalanche are another example, as after finishing dead last in 2016-2017, the Avalanche would trade Matt Duchene for other assets, while keeping the remaining core of Nathan Mackinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Tyson Barrie in tact, while also accumulating prospects such as Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar. The final example of a team that re-tooled consistently throughout the years are the 2000s and 2010s San Jose Sharks. Despite the fact that the Sharks missed the playoffs just once from 2003-2004 to 2018-2019, some re-tooling off-seasons include Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheecho for Dany Heatley in 2009, Anttii Niemi replacing goaltender Evgeni Nabokov in 2010, Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi departing in the 2011 off-season while acquiring Brent Burns and Martin Havlat, Martin Jones replacing goaltender Anttii Niemi in 2015, among other transactions and signings.
The Verdict
Overall, rebuilding is not an ideal plan if it is not necessary due to the time, effort, risk, and financial consequences. Additionally, when looking at the most recent Stanley Cup Champions, the majority of them did not go through a recent rebuild, and those that did fell into the category where a rebuild made sense.
Recent Stanley Cup Champions and Significant Players from Previous Rebuild
Current teams such as the Pittsburgh Penguins and Nashville Predators may need to consider a rebuild in the near future, in both cases due to an aging core. However, other teams such as the Islanders and Flames, that would currently fall into the “limbo” category, would likely be much better off re-tooling, as both teams have a mix of experienced veterans and young players with high potential. While there have been success stories in the past, the luck involved, as well as the return on time investment shown by some of the current rebuilding teams in the NHL, or lack thereof, serve as a lesson to future general managers.