Ranking the Most Devastating Upsets in the Salary Cap Era
The first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs saw no major upsets. In fact, the Colorado Avalanche were the only team that didn’t have home-ice advantage that won a series. However, with the Dallas Stars dropping their first two games and needing a seventh to take down the second wild card Vegas Golden Knights, it got me thinking about some of the past first round upsets of top seeded teams. Although all first seeded upsets are disappointing, some were more devastating than others. This list will rank all first seed upsets in the salary cap era, going from the least devastating to most devastating upset.
8 - 2017 Blackhawks (C1) lose to Predators (W2) 4-0
The least devastating series upset is the 2017 Nashville Predators sweeping the top seeded Chicago Blackhawks. One of the biggest reasons for this is the fact that the Blackhawks were only two years removed from winning the Stanley Cup, and had won three Stanley Cups from 2010-2015. Additionally, the Predators were far better than a typical second wild card team. They became just the third 8th seed in the salary cap era to go to the Stanley Cup Finals, and would win the Presidents Trophy the following season as the leagues best regular season team. Although the sweep was a surprise, and this series ended up being on my list of the most lopsided series, these factors ease the blow that the Blackhawks received. In fact, the Slapshot Bets’ logistic regression model that predicts first round series winners correctly predicted the Nashville Predators to win this series. As a result, this first round upset had the smallest impact and was the least devastating.
7 - 2006 Red Wings (1) lose to Oilers (8) 4-2
While this upset was certainly one of the most surprising on this list, as these two teams had a 32 point difference, the blow to the Red Wings was lessened by the fact that they had won the Stanley Cup relatively recently in 2002, not to mention cups in 1997 and 1998, and also showed promise for the future, meaning 2006 was by no means their last shot at a Stanley Cup. In fact, the very next year they finished second in the league, and the following year in 2008 won yet another Stanley Cup. Similar to the Predators, the Oilers were evidently much better than a typical 8th seeded team. They were the first 8th seed to go to the Stanley Cup Finals in the salary cap era, which wouldn’t be done again until the 2012 Los Angeles Kings. Because of this, the Red Wings were not as devastated as some of the other upsets on this list.
6 - 2019 Flames (P1) lose to Avalanche (W2) 4-1
The 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs were a one of a kind, as all division winners were knocked out in the first round, something that had never happened before. One of these were the Flames, who had a strong start winning game one 4-0 before losing four in a row. Even in game two, the Flames were close to going up 2-0 in the series until Colorado pulled their goalie to tie it late, and then proceeded to win in overtime. The series momentum completely flipped after that, and Colorado never looked back. Although the Flames were the heavy favourites heading into this series, it can also be said that the expectations weren’t as high as a typical first seeded team. This is because in 2017-2018, the Flames missed the playoffs, and very few, if any, saw the Flames as Stanley Cup contenders before the 2018-2019 season began. This upset was not as devastating as others on this list, however, with the Flames having looked promising after game one before completely imploding ranks it higher than the previous two entries.
5 - 2012 Canucks (1) lose to Kings (8) 4-1
Similar to the previous entries on this list, this upset ranks lower in part due to the fact that the team they lost to went deep into the playoffs, thereby lessening the blow. In fact, the Los Angeles Kings are to this day the only 8th seed to ever win the Stanley Cup, even when including the pre-salary cap era. Not only that, but they went up 3-0 in all four of their series, finishing 16-4 overall and 10-1 on the road. Because of this dominance, it was hard to be too upset knowing that the team that beat you was nearly unstoppable by any other team. It was still nonetheless a relatively devastating loss for the Canucks, given that they did win the Presidents Trophy and could only manage one win against the Kings. However, the way the previous season ended makes this loss minuscule in comparison.
4 - 2009 Sharks (1) lose to Ducks (8) 4-2
The 2008-2009 San Jose Sharks had one of the strongest starts to a season of any team in the modern era. They would begin the season on a 22-3-1 run, which would later be a record of 36-6-5. In their last 35 games, they would go a mediocre 17-12-6 to close out the season. This visible slow down prevents the Sharks from being any higher on the list, however, they had nonetheless been a cup contender for a few years to this point, and the expectation was that they should have been able to beat the Ducks, a team with 26 less points than the Sharks. In the defence of the Sharks, they did not play as poorly as the series would suggest, with them losing the first two games and ultimately losing in six. They outshot the Ducks in all six games, with a final shot total of 230-155, for an average of 38-25 per game. However, Jonas Hiller, goaltender of the Anaheim Ducks, had a goals saved above expected of 13.61 in just six games. This means that although the Sharks scored only 10 goals in the entire series, they were expected to score 23.61 according to moneypuck.com. While the result was far below expectations, there are occurrences of great teams running into a goaltender who is playing on another level, where it seems like there is nothing that can be done. The next entry had a similar situation the following year.
3 - 2010 Capitals (1) lose to Canadiens (8) 4-3
Despite a 33 point difference in the standings, the 2010 Montreal Canadiens shocked the hockey world when they took down the Presidents Trophy winning Washington Capitals in seven games. What makes this upset especially devastating is the fact that the Capitals were up 3-1 in the series, with three opportunities to close it out. The credit for this comeback upset mainly goes to Canadiens’ goaltender Jaroslav Halák, who replaced Carey Price in game five and would allow only one goal in each of the following three games. Halak made a combined 131 saves on 134 shots, and was especially great in game six, where he stopped 53 of 54 shots. The point differential, high expectations, and the fact that the Capitals were up 3-1 in the series makes this one of the most devastating upsets in the salary cap era.
2 - 2023 Bruins (A1) lose to Panthers (W2) 4-3
Technically speaking, the 2022-2023 Boston Bruins were the greatest regular season team of all time, shattering the wins and points record with 65 wins and 135 points. They started off very strong, and unlike the 2008-2009 Sharks, they never slowed down. Although the Bruins had been a great team for many years to this point, no one had expected the level of success for this season given that there was uncertainty about certain players coming back, as well as injuries to key players such as Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy to start the season. However, by the time the playoffs rolled around, the expectations were high once again. Their first round opponent was the Florida Panthers, who despite having a whopping 43 less points than the Bruins, were much better than a typical second wild card team. The Panthers were one of the best regular season teams in 2021, and won the Presidents Trophy in the 2021-2022 season. However, the Bruins seemed to have shut them down well, going up 3-1 in the series. In game five, the Bruins were as close as an overtime breakaway from ending the series, until later on, Bruins’ goaltender Linus Ullmark made a horrific error, giving away the puck and the game. Game six would be an exciting, back and forth game, but ultimately the Panthers win 7-5. With the pressure on in game seven, the Bruins started off slow, down 2-0, before climbing back to lead 3-2. However, with the extra attacker on, Florida would tie it and force game seven overtime, where Carter Verhage would complete the 3-1 series comeback, and one of the greatest upsets in sports history. Both Bergeron and Krejci would not return to the Bruins the following season, and many of the Bruins’ depth players would leave in the off season due to salary cap constraints. Although the Bruins would have a very good 2023-2024 season, many thought this was the last year the Bruins could contend for a Stanley Cup. Although I would have no problem switching the order and ranking this upset at number one instead, for me the difference maker is the fact that the Florida Panthers were a much better team than what their point total would suggest, and they would eventually go to the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to Vegas.
1 - 2019 Lightning (A1) lose to Blue Jackets (W2) 4-0
The greatest upset in the salary cap era, and most likely NHL history, was when the Tampa Bay Lightning lost in four straight games to the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2019. The Tampa Bay Lightning had tied the wins record at the time with 62, and finished 21 points ahead of the second place Calgary Flames in the standings. The Lightning had already been a great team for a few years to this point, and were Stanley Cup contenders even before the season started. On the other hand, the Columbus Blue Jackets squeaked into the final wild card spot towards the end of the season, just two points ahead of Montreal in ninth place. To be fair, the Blue Jackets were a good hockey team. However, very few, if any, expected them to stand a chance against the Lightning, especially given the fact that Tampa outscored Columbus 17-3 in the regular season. The first period of game one looked like a continuation of the season series, with the Lightning up 3-0. They were close to making it 4-0 in the dying seconds of the first period, until Sergei Bobrovsky made a spectacular save. Whether this sparked a momentum change or not, this was the visible turning point of the series, despite being just one period in. The Blue Jackets would score four goals in the next two period to come back and win 4-3. Game two saw the Blue Jackets dominate, winning 5-1. Game three the Jackets won a tight game 3-1, finished off by a back and forth game four that was 4-3 in favour of the Jackets, until they eventually won 7-3 with three empty net goals.
What makes this upset so catastrophic was just how successful the Lightning were during the regular season, only to not win a single playoff game. The team had by far the best goal differential at +103, and they finished first on both the powerplay and penalty kill. As far as individual players go, Nikta Kucherov was the Hart Trophy winner for league MVP, as well as the Ted Lindsay award winner for best player. Andrei Vasilevskiy won the Vezina Trophy as the leagues best goaltender. Victor Hedman finished third in Norris Trophy voting for the leagues best defenceman. Everything about this team had Stanley Cup written all over it, yet they didn’t win a single game. What made this upset even more severe than the record breaking 2022-2023 Boston Bruins? The Columbus Blue Jackets lost in the very next round. Had the Lightning lost to a team that would go on a deep run, they would likely be number two on this list instead. However, not just losing, but getting swept by a team who then losing in six the following round makes this upset the most devastating on the list.
In hindsight, the devastation from this upset was nullified, as the Lightning would go on to win the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021, as well as make a third consecutive finals appearance in 2022. However, at the time, the hockey world was stunned by this catastrophic upset.
Ranking Summary of All Eight Upsets in the Salary Cap Era