Do Previous Deep Playoff Runs Determine Current Success?
With the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, and New York Rangers set to play in the 2024 Conference Finals, all four of these teams have made it this far once in the previous two post-seasons. Dallas and Florida were in the 2023 Conference Finals, while Edmonton and New York were in the 2022 Conference Finals. This is the first time since 1997 where all four teams in the Conference Finals had made it this far at least one time in the previous three post-seasons. With that in mind, does previous experience with long playoff runs translate to a higher chance of success the next time a team appears in the Conference Finals?
Since the 1995 lockout season, using this as a base year for the approximate season where the modern era began, there have been 54 times where a team in the Conference Finals had made it that far at least once in the previous three seasons. Of these 54 teams, 20 would be eventual Stanley Cup champions. In other words, in this 28 season window, 20 of the Stanley Cup winners needed a failed experience at least once in the previous three seasons before going on to win the Stanley Cup.
A list of Stanley Cup winning teams that had made it to the third round at least once in the previous three post-seasons since 1995
The only teams that won the Stanley Cup on their first run to the Conference Finals in over three post-seasons are the 1996 Avalanche, 2000 Devils, 2002 Red Wings, 2004 Lightning, 2011 Bruins, 2012 Kings, 2018 Capitals, and 2022 Avalanche. This would suggest that having prior extended playoff experience is important, and that cup-winning teams often fail on their first run beyond the second round before they succeed.
The remaining 34 of 54 teams did not win a Stanley Cup despite making frequent appearances to the Conference Finals. Some of the most notable teams that could seemingly never get over the hump include the 2010s San Jose Sharks (WCF appearances in 2010, 2011 and 2016, 2019) and the Philadelphia Flyers throughout the 1990s and 2000s (ECF appearances in 1995, 1997, 2000 and 2004, 2008, 2010). Every other franchise that had at least two separate four year stretches of multiple Conference Finals appearances managed to win at least one Stanley Cup. If the New York Rangers don’t win the Stanley Cup in 2024, they will join the Sharks and Flyers, as they also failed to capitalize on their three appearances in 2012, 2014, and 2015.
Overall, having previous experience with a deep playoff run is a common characteristic of Stanley Cup champions. Whether it is a failure that turns into a learning experience, or previous success that leads to even more success, the majority of Stanley Cup winners had been to the Conference Finals at least once in their previous three seasons. Because all four teams remaining have been to the Conference Finals once in the previous two seasons, this variable is not useful to predict the 2024 Stanley Cup champion, as it is guaranteed that this years winner will fit this criteria. However, this can be kept in mind for future seasons, as whichever three teams don’t win the Stanley Cup this year may have the experience needed for a Stanley Cup win in future seasons.